Anthropic Filing Lifts KOSPI 3.09%: What We Check Before SK Hynix Reports

Today's mood

In the first session after Anthropic’s IPO filing became public, KOSPI rose 3.09% to close at 5,638.34. The index had fallen to 5,469.47 on the previous trading day, its lowest close since April.

A buy sidecar was triggered around 10:13 a.m. as KOSPI 200 futures jumped, and the index briefly topped 5,700 intraday. Retail selling and profit-taking trimmed the gain in the afternoon, so the index did not close above 5,700.

Beginner’s note: a sidecar pauses the effect of program-trading orders for five minutes when futures move sharply. Net buying is the amount bought minus the amount sold, so foreigners turning net buyers means they switched from selling to buying.

Yesterday's checkpoints, how they turned out

Our previous note named three things to check: whether KOSPI would close above 5,469.47, whether foreigners would turn net buyers, and whether SK Hynix would announce shareholder returns with its earnings.

The first two held. KOSPI closed 168.87 points higher at 5,638.34, and foreigners net bought 592.7 billion won on KOSPI (provisional, 16:21). The third is still open. We wrote that SK Hynix reports today, but the company’s filing puts the announcement on October 28, tomorrow. The date error was ours, and the checkpoint moves to tomorrow.

Foreigners turned net buyers after four sessions

On KOSPI, foreigners net bought 592.7 billion won and institutions 282.7 billion won, while individuals net sold 949.8 billion won (provisional, 16:21). Press reports give different totals because they were counted at different times, so this note uses one provisional set taken at the same moment.

Seoul Economic Daily said it was the first time in four sessions that foreigners bought spot and futures together. Institutional buying weakened in the afternoon. On KOSDAQ, foreigners bought 20.3 billion won and institutions 150.5 billion won, and individuals sold 167.6 billion won.

Chips and electronic parts led the sectors

Electronic equipment rose 6.38%, handsets 5.45%, software 4.99% and semiconductors and equipment 4.71%. In semiconductors, 160 of 173 stocks rose, so this was not a rally carried by a few names.

On the other side, pharmaceuticals fell 2.69% and health care technology 2.21%. Even with the index up more than 3%, 78 of 174 pharmaceutical stocks fell, so the rebound did not reach biotech.

Anthropic's filing revived chip sentiment

Anthropic filed its S-1 with the U.S. SEC on October 26 local time. Money Today reported that first-half revenue was about $162.9 billion, roughly 14 times a year earlier, and that operating income turned positive in the second quarter. For a market that doubted whether AI spending pays off, it was one concrete number.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.82% overnight, with Nvidia up 2.39%, AMD 2.80% and Micron 2.98%. Samsung Electronics rose 4.23% to 222,000 won and SK Hynix 5.18% to 1,341,000 won. Lee Kyung-min of Daishin Securities said the filing helped restore AI investor sentiment.

SK Hynix's shareholder-return plan comes tomorrow

In a filing on October 26, SK Hynix said nothing has been decided on special-dividend reports and that it will announce additional shareholder returns after a board resolution, at its third-quarter earnings on October 28. Some outlets reported a special dividend of around 16 trillion won, but the company has not confirmed that figure.

SK Square, which holds a stake in SK Hynix, showed the expectation first. It rose 7.67% to 828,000 won with 620.2 billion won traded, the most among the stocks we follow. If the announcement falls short, the same expectation can unwind.

Simmtech rose 9.23%, the biggest move

Among the stocks we follow, the largest move was Simmtech, a chip-substrate maker, up 9.23%. Daeduck Electronics rose 6.68% and Jusung Engineering 4.30%. Money Today said warmth spread to KOSDAQ chip materials, parts and equipment stocks such as Simmtech.

We could not find a company-specific reason for Simmtech in today’s reports, so we read the gain as part of the chip rally and add nothing more. Samsung Electro-Mechanics also rose 7.42%, a sign that buying reached chip-related stocks beyond Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Only Samsung Biologics fell, down 5.37%

On a day the index rose more than 3%, Samsung Biologics fell 5.37% to 1,374,000 won. Celltrion lost 0.74% and Alteogen was flat.

We found no same-day report explaining the drop. On October 22, Korea Economic Daily reported that the shares fell despite third-quarter earnings above expectations because of a gap in new orders, so money may have moved to chips while doubts about growth remained. That is our guess, not a confirmed cause.

What foreigners sold yesterday

Stock-level flows are blank right after the close, so we use the confirmed figures for the previous session, October 26. That day foreigners net sold more than 980,000 shares of Samsung Electronics and more than 310,000 shares of SK Hynix. Foreigners turned net buyers overall today, but whether that was in the same stocks will only be clear once tomorrow’s confirmed data arrive.

So we do not say today’s foreign buying went into large chip stocks. What is confirmed is that large chip stocks were where foreigners sold up to yesterday.

KOSDAQ and the won

KOSDAQ closed up 16.62 points, or 2.29%, at 743.83. EcoPro BM rose 5.58% and Samsung SDI 5.07%, so secondary batteries moved too.

The won was at 1,324.9 per dollar at the 16:15 Hana Bank notice, 0.16% stronger than the previous close. The move was small, so it is hard to find the reason for foreign buying in the exchange rate.

What to watch before earnings

First, whether SK Hynix announces its shareholder-return plan tomorrow as it said it would, and whether the size meets the expectation already in SK Square and chip prices. Next is whether foreigners repeat today’s net buying tomorrow. One day of buying is hard to call a reversal of four days of selling. Until this week’s FOMC and big-tech earnings pass, we think it will be hard for the index to settle above 5,700.

What our research turned up

The rebound did not change the valuation picture much. On Naver Finance consensus, price to this year’s expected earnings (PER) is 3.8x for SK Hynix and 4.9x for Samsung Electronics. Analyst target prices are 142.3% above the current price for SK Hynix and 121.8% above for Samsung Electronics.

A cheap-looking calculation does not change the fact that foreigners were sellers until the previous session. This week’s earnings and shareholder returns are the first test of whether to trust it.

Lee Jae-won of Yuanta Securities said foreign spot net buying has to continue before supply and demand problems ease and a real rebound is possible. The calendar is SK Hynix earnings on the 28th, Samsung Electronics’ confirmed results and the FOMC decision on the 29th, and Amazon earnings early on the 30th.

Han Ji-young of Kiwoom Securities noted that KOSPI’s moving averages are still in reverse order, which keeps technical pressure in place. That is why we do not read a large one-day rebound as a trend change.

Sources

• Korea Economic Daily Korean-language article
• Seoul Economic Daily Korean-language article
• Money Today Korean-language article
• Korea Economic Daily Korean-language article
• Korea Economic Daily Korean-language article