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Intel Stumbled Today. The Real Reason Was Terafab.
Today's mood
U.S. stocks started the week higher on Monday, October 5. The Dow Jones rose 0.18% to 51,267.90, the S&P 500 gained 0.66% to a record 7,773.95, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.05% to a record 27,477.31. The small-cap Russell 2000 added 0.5%.
Not everything pointed to calm. The VIX fear gauge actually rose 1.37% to 15.52, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.31% from 5.28% on Friday. The indexes hit records, but the records were driven less by broad market strength than by single-stock news.
What we were watching, and what happened
Friday’s post (October 2) said we’d check three things by Monday: whether Micron rejoins the chip rally, whether the 10-year yield climbs toward Wednesday’s intraday high of 5.344%, and whether the AI-financing concerns around Broadcom and Alphabet resurface. The answers split.
Micron still hasn’t rejoined — it fell another 1.02% today, diverging from chips for a second straight session. The 10-year yield rose to 5.31%, closer to Wednesday’s high but not past it. Broadcom (+2.08%) and Alphabet (+0.86%) both rose again, so the circular-financing worry didn’t resurface in today’s prices either.
The 10-year yield edged closer to Wednesday's high
Rising yields alongside record stocks isn’t the usual pairing. The 10-year climbed to 5.31% from 5.28% on Friday, closer to the 5.344% intraday high set last Wednesday. The 30-year also rose, to 5.66%.
Normally, rate-sensitive growth stocks wobble first when yields rise. Today was the opposite. What lifted the Nasdaq had nothing to do with rates — it was single-stock news: SpaceX’s rebrand and Twilio’s index inclusion.
Today's biggest mover was SpaceX (SPCX)
SpaceX led all movers today, up 7.63% to $171.09 — its highest price since mid-June — a move that reportedly returned Elon Musk to trillionaire status.
The trigger was President Trump’s September 29 directive telling federal agencies to use the term “Super Intelligence” (SI) instead of “artificial intelligence.” Musk said he’d rename SpaceX’s AI division from SpaceXAI to SpaceXSI to match. Morgan Stanley reiterated a $300 price target — about 75% above today’s close — calling the stock cheap at current levels.
Renaming a division doesn’t launch more rockets or satellites. But the market appears to be reading it as a signal that the company is aligned with the administration’s preferred language and priorities.
Intel stumbled on Terafab news
Intel fell 2.63% in the opposite direction. Musk confirmed on social media on Saturday, October 4, that Taiwan Semiconductor could join his Terafab chip-plant venture — unsettling Intel investors.
Terafab is the Texas chip-manufacturing project Musk announced in April. Intel was the first company to sign on, and its next-generation 14A process was named the facility’s sole process technology. TSMC’s possible entry threatens that exclusivity — TSMC shares rose about 3% in Taiwan and 1% in U.S. premarket trading the same day.
For beginners: a chip foundry manufactures chips that other companies design. Intel is one of the few companies that both designs and manufactures its own chips, and keeping its process as the “standard” at a new U.S. plant like Terafab is central to that business.
Chips split: only Nvidia and Broadcom gained
Semiconductors didn’t move in one direction today. Nvidia rose 2.12% and Broadcom 2.08%, while Micron fell 1.02% and Intel fell 2.63%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) rose just 0.1%, essentially flat for the sector as a whole.
Single-stock news, not rates or sector-wide sentiment, drove the split. Intel fell on the Terafab competitive threat; Nvidia and Broadcom rose on continued AI data-center spending optimism. Micron fell for a second day with no clear stock-specific news.
Moderna jumped on Nasdaq-100 inclusion
Moderna rose 6.95%, the day’s second-biggest gainer. The catalyst was Nasdaq’s October 1 announcement that Moderna will join the Nasdaq-100 before the open on October 9, replacing Warner Bros. Discovery.
Funds that track an index have to buy a stock once it’s added, so buying often starts as soon as the announcement is confirmed, days ahead of the effective date. Moderna is also a stock Citigroup downgraded to Sell in September — today, the mechanical flows from index inclusion outweighed that bearish call.
Photo: audrey_sel / Flickr (BY-SA 2.0)
Merck moved the other way
In the same pharma and biotech group, Merck fell 3.3%, the day’s second-biggest decliner. We found no company-specific news behind the drop. On a day Moderna surged, the sector itself split in direction.
Valuation check: Micron still looks cheap
Micron falling for a second day doesn’t make it expensive. Among the stocks we follow, Micron has the lowest forward P/E (based on expected earnings over the next 12 months) at 5.1x, with 43.0% upside to its average price target. Intel’s forward P/E is already 56.3x, with only 0.2% upside — its stock is already close to the target.
A low P/E doesn’t always mean undervalued. Cyclical sectors like memory chips can show the lowest P/E right when earnings peak. Still, it’s worth noting that while Intel moved on a single piece of news today, Micron’s valuation metrics themselves didn’t change.
Microsoft got upgraded and downgraded on the same day
According to MarketBeat, Wall Street firms published 424 ratings and price-target reports today. Upgrades numbered 18, downgrades 25, and new coverage initiations 25.
Microsoft stood out. UBS and Morgan Stanley both cut their ratings the same day, while Citigroup and Evercore raised theirs. Same stock, same day, opposite calls — and Microsoft shares rose 1.48% anyway. At least today, the bullish read won out in the price.
Tesla, Coinbase and Twilio rose too
SpaceX and Moderna weren’t the only movers. Coinbase rose 2.85%, Tesla 2.2%, and cloud communications company Twilio 2.15% — Twilio is set to join the S&P 500 before the open on October 6.
Twilio and Moderna are filling the same company’s old seats. Warner Bros. Discovery is being delisted on October 6 as its merger with Paramount Skydance closes, dropping it from both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 at once — Twilio takes the S&P 500 spot, Moderna the Nasdaq-100 spot. Warner Bros. Discovery shares barely moved today (+0.03%), already locked near the $31-per-share deal price.
Oil fell, and the link to Korea is Terafab
WTI crude fell 1.84% to $89.43. Gold slipped a modest 0.13% to $4,156.80.
Today’s Terafab news isn’t an immediate event for Korean chipmakers. Terafab is a U.S. plant that’s years from operating, and Musk himself called the TSMC talks “early.” Still, the broader push to expand memory and AI-chip manufacturing inside the U.S. touches the same ground Korean memory makers operate on, so whether this takes shape further is worth watching.
What we'll check next session
First, whether Intel falls further on Terafab/TSMC news or today was a one-day reaction. Second, whether the 10-year yield rises past Wednesday’s intraday high (5.344%). Third, whether SpaceX’s rally continues, and whether more news emerges to support Morgan Stanley’s $300 target.
What else stood out today
Stocks move just from joining or leaving an index
Twilio and Moderna rose today for the same underlying reason — both got index-inclusion news. Twilio joins the S&P 500 before the open on October 6; Moderna joins the Nasdaq-100 before the open on October 9. Both are taking the seat Warner Bros. Discovery is vacating.
Index funds have to mechanically match what’s in the index they track, so buying often starts as soon as inclusion is confirmed, well ahead of the effective date. Warner Bros. Discovery is being delisted on October 6 when its merger with Paramount Skydance closes, dropping out of both indexes at once — yet its shares barely moved today, already locked near the $31-per-share deal price.
| Twilio -> S&P 500 | Before the open, Oct. 6 |
| Moderna -> Nasdaq-100 | Before the open, Oct. 9 |
| Warner Bros. Discovery | Delisted Oct. 6 on merger close |
Musk's two faces around Terafab
Two pieces of Musk-linked news moved in opposite directions today, within the same storyline. His own company, SpaceX, jumped more than 7% on a rebrand. The chip plant he’s building, Terafab, saw its original partner, Intel, fall on news that a competitor, TSMC, might join.
Terafab is the Texas chip and memory manufacturing project Musk announced in April 2026. Intel was the first to sign on, with its next-generation 14A process named the facility’s sole process technology. A report that TSMC was in talks to join (first reported October 2 by the Culpium newsletter) threatened that exclusivity. Musk himself called the talks “early” in a social media post on October 4, but Intel’s stock had already reacted.
| Terafab announced | April 2026, Texas |
| Intel joins | April 2026, sole partner on 14A |
| TSMC talks reported | Reported Oct. 2, confirmed by Musk Oct. 4 |
Fermata’s Take
We’re not reading today’s records as a sign the whole market shifted direction. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose just 0.1%, and what lifted the Nasdaq wasn’t sector-wide strength — it was single-stock news: SpaceX’s rebrand, and index inclusions for Twilio and Moderna. Treasury yields rose regardless.
So we’re not adding to semiconductor exposure on the back of today’s gains. A stock like Intel, swinging on a single headline, is one we watch through its next earnings report (October 22). We also separate moves driven by mechanical flows — Twilio and Moderna rising on index inclusion — from moves grounded in fundamentals, like Micron’s 5.1x forward P/E. Flow-driven gains can unwind once the flow ends.
Next session, we’ll check whether Intel falls further on Terafab news, and whether the 10-year yield clears Wednesday’s high.
Check · 2026-10-06 — Whether Intel falls further on Terafab/TSMC news (or whether today was a one-day reaction), whether the 10-year yield climbs past Wednesday's intraday high of 5.344%, and whether SpaceX's rally continues into the next session.
Sources
- CNBC SpaceX stock climbs to highest since June, returning Musk to trillionaire status
- Yahoo Finance SpaceX Climbs 5% as Musk Renames SpaceXAI to SpaceXSI, Morgan Stanley Reiterates $300 Target
- Yahoo Finance Intel Drops 4% as Elon Musk Signals Taiwan Semiconductor Could Join Terafab; AMD Slips, NVIDIA Holds Steady
- Yahoo Finance Moderna, Inc. to Join the Nasdaq-100 Index Beginning October 9, 2026
- Investing.com Twilio to join S&P 500 as S&P Dow Jones reshuffles indices
- Yahoo Finance Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq rise as tech rallies, investors shrug off bond market caution