U.S. Market Close · 2026-10-02

SpaceX Jumped Today. One Thing to Watch Monday.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

51,176.96

+0.49%

S&P 500

7,722.72

+0.73%

Nasdaq Composite

27,190.86

+1.19%

Russell 2000

2,832.89

+0.94%

VIX

15.31

-6.59%

US 10-Year Treasury Yield

5.28%

+0.76%

US 30-Year Treasury Yield

5.63%

+0.48%

Gold

4,172.1 USD

-0.72%

A Friday Rally Built on Bad News

Wall Street closed out the week with all three major indexes higher on Friday, October 2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.49% to 51,176.96, the S&P 500 gained 0.73% to 7,722.72, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.19% to 27,190.86. The small-cap Russell 2000 added 0.94%.

One number drove the day: September payrolls came in far weaker than expected, and traders read that as proof the Fed won’t be able to hike again in October. The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, sank 6.59% to 15.31, a clear sign that anxiety had drained out of the market.

Yesterday's Check, Answered

Yesterday’s close asked three questions for today: how yields and stocks would react to the jobs report, whether the AI-financing worries weighing on Broadcom and Alphabet would persist, and whether Micron’s rally would continue. The answers split three ways.

Stocks cheered the weak jobs data, but Treasury yields went the other way — the 10-year rose 0.76% to 5.28%, above Thursday’s 5.24% close. Broadcom (+3.35%) and Alphabet (+1.56%) both bounced, suggesting the circular-financing worry eased, at least for one session. Micron did the opposite, falling 2.05% and giving back all of Thursday’s gain.

Broadcom and Alphabet Bounced; Micron Didn't

Payrolls Came In at a Third of Forecast

The Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls grew by just 29,000 in September, about a third of the 84,000 Wall Street expected. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1% (CNBC, Investing.com).

For beginners: nonfarm payrolls count how many jobs were added that month, and the unemployment rate is the share of job-seekers who couldn’t find work. Weaker hiring and a higher jobless rate both point to a cooling economy — and a cooling economy makes it harder for the Fed to justify another rate hike. That’s why stocks rallied on what sounds like bad news.

CME FedWatch now puts the odds of a hold at the October meeting at 77% (CNBC). Traders still see a real chance of a hike in December, though, so it’s too early to say this single report changed the Fed’s path.

Yields Rose Anyway

A weak jobs report and rising yields don’t usually go together. Reports say the 10-year yield initially fell on the release, then climbed back through the session to close at 5.28%, above the prior day (CNBC). The 30-year added 0.48% to 5.63%, and 2-year yields rose too — so this wasn’t just a long-end move.

Read one way, bond traders aren’t buying a simple ‘weak jobs means rate cuts’ story. Inflation (334.13 over the last 90 days, +1.32) is still climbing, which makes it premature to say one jobs report rewrote the Fed’s math.

Chips Rallied Across the Board

Unlike yields, chip stocks moved in one clear direction. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rose 2.18%, with Nvidia (+1.34%), AMD (+2.95%) and Broadcom (+3.35%) all higher. Optical-networking name Lumentum climbed 3.79% as well; Bernstein recently started coverage at Outperform with a $1,220 target, calling optical networking a ‘structural winner’ in AI infrastructure (Investing.com).

The circular-financing questions around Broadcom’s up-to-$42-billion loan to Anthropic — the story from yesterday’s close — didn’t stop chipmakers from rallying as a group today.

Most Chip Names Rose; Micron and Intel Didn't

Photo: Un ragazzo chiamato Bi / Flickr (BY-SA 2.0)

Micron Was the Exception

While the sector rose, Micron fell 2.05% to $1,074.89. Intel slipped 0.56% too. There was no clear negative headline behind either move — profit-taking after Micron’s 3.03% jump the day before is the simplest explanation.

On valuation, Micron still looks cheap: its forward P/E of 5.2 sits 41.4% below the average Wall Street price target. It has also climbed to within 14.4% of its 52-week high, so a one- or two-day pullback isn’t unusual.

SpaceX Was the Day's Biggest Mover

The single largest move among the names we track belonged to SpaceX (SPCX), up 7.35% to $158.96. The company launched three rockets in roughly 13 hours the day before, including a Dragon capsule that carried four astronauts to the International Space Station faster than any American spacecraft ever has (Yahoo Finance).

It wasn’t just the launches. Under a deal signed in June, SpaceX began supplying Alphabet with AI computing services this month, worth about $920 million a month for 32 months (Yahoo Finance) — two very different businesses making headlines in the same week.

Alphabet Shared in SpaceX's Gain

Alphabet rose 1.56% to $343.50. The AI-computing revenue from its SpaceX deal starts hitting the books this month, which investors read as a positive. Alphabet shares that fell on circular-financing worries yesterday bounced back today — helped, at least in part, by the fact that this particular contract involves real launches and real service already underway.

Still, the arrangement is another case of one AI company buying services from another, so it doesn’t fully escape the same question raised by Broadcom’s loan to Anthropic.

Tesla Won on Deliveries

Tesla gained 4.65% to close at $370.59. Third-quarter deliveries came in at 486,532 vehicles, beating the roughly 463,000 analysts expected by more than 20,000 (CNBC). Model 3 and Model Y deliveries of 478,237 topped the 450,712 forecast, and European registrations were up about two-thirds through August.

Deliveries were still down 2% from a year earlier, but last year’s quarter was inflated by buyers rushing to claim a $7,500 tax credit before it expired — which is why today’s beat read as stronger than the headline decline suggests.

Photo: jurvetson / Flickr (BY 2.0)

Why Did Coinbase Fall?

Coinbase dropped 3.32% to $183.00. Coincidentally, Wells Fargo started coverage the same day with an Equal Weight rating and a $200 target (Yahoo Finance) — more than 9% above the closing price. A stock falling the same day a new price target sits well above it is a sign that one rating alone isn’t the full explanation.

Coinbase trades at a forward P/E of 64.7, the richest valuation among the names we tracked today. The more expensive a stock gets, the more it can move on its own, regardless of the broader market’s mood.

Deere Kept Climbing

Deere rose 2.96% to $687.00. The move extends a run that began in late August, when Baird upgraded the stock to Outperform and raised its price target from $640 to $800, arguing that North American farm equipment demand had bottomed out (CNBC, Yahoo Finance).

On valuation, Deere’s forward P/E of 30.1 sits just 0.7% below its average price target — the closest to ‘fairly priced’ of any name we tracked today.

Oil Fell; the Link to Korea Is Semiconductors

WTI crude fell 1.73% to $91.26 a barrel after reports that G7 countries agreed to release more reserve fuel (WSJ). Gold slipped 0.72% as well.

The clearest link to Monday’s Korean session is semiconductors. The chip ETF rose and Broadcom and AMD both gained, yet Micron fell alone — a split that could send mixed signals to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which compete in the same memory market. Whether Korean chipmakers follow the sector’s rally or Micron’s one-day pullback won’t be clear until Monday’s open.

What to Watch Next Session

First, whether Micron rejoins the broader semiconductor rally on Monday or whether today’s drop turns into something longer. Second, whether the 10-year yield climbs past 5.28% toward Wednesday’s intraday high of 5.344%. Third, whether the AI-financing and circular-financing concerns around Broadcom and Alphabet stay quiet into the next session.

Worth Watching Today

A Hedge Fund Built a New SpaceX Stake Last Quarter

According to a 13F filing for the quarter ended June 30, hedge fund Coatue Management opened a new position of 18,561,780 SpaceX shares. The same quarter, it also raised its stakes in Micron (+1,794%), Amazon (+49%), and Broadcom (+6%) — all names that rose on Wall Street today.

13F filings arrive 45 days after the reporting date, so this is last quarter’s picture, not necessarily today’s position. Still, it’s worth knowing that a fund was building large positions in today’s winners back in the second quarter.

SpaceX	New: 18,561,780 shares
Micron	+1,794% (2,976,338 shares)
Amazon	+49% (3,904,033 shares)
Broadcom	+6% (342,979 shares)

Wall Street Changed 134 Price Targets Today Alone

MarketBeat tallied 270 analyst ratings and price-target actions on U.S. stocks today. Of those, 40 raised price targets and 94 cut them — more than twice as many cuts as raises. Upgrades (17) and downgrades (14) were roughly balanced.

Coinbase’s new Equal Weight rating from Wells Fargo, with a $200 target, was one of those 270 actions. On a day when target cuts outnumbered raises by more than two to one, every major index still closed higher — a reminder that Wall Street’s stock-by-stock view and the market’s overall mood don’t always move in the same direction.

Reports today	270 (MarketBeat)
Target raises / cuts	40 / 94
Upgrades / downgrades	17 / 14

Fermata’s Take

We’re not reading today’s rally as a simple ‘weak jobs means lower rates’ story. Treasury yields rose the same day, and December hike odds are still very much alive. Stocks and bonds looked at the same jobs report and drew different conclusions.

So we’re not adding to rate-sensitive positions on the back of one rally. We do distinguish between sector-wide moves, like today’s semiconductor rally, and moves explained by individual fundamentals, like Micron’s valuation gap or Tesla’s delivery beat — a sector-wide tailwind can fade the moment the rate outlook shifts, but numbers confirmed in earnings don’t.

Next session, we’ll check whether Micron rejoins the chip rally, and whether the 10-year yield keeps climbing past 5.28%.

Check · 2026-10-05 — Whether Micron rejoins the semiconductor rally (or whether Friday's drop was a one-day pullback), whether the 10-year yield climbs past 5.28% toward Wednesday's intraday high of 5.344%, and whether the AI-financing and circular-financing concerns around Broadcom and Alphabet resurface.