We're Not Chasing Today's Coinbase Rally

Today's mood

By the headline numbers it was a quiet session. The S&P 500 rose 0.17% to 7,650.50, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.39% to 26,522.54, and the Dow slipped 0.18% to 51,682.64. The VIX fell 4.08% to 14.81, easing off a week of elevated tension.

Under the surface, though, single stocks told a very different story. Coinbase jumped 11.66%, Sandisk rose 10.99%, and most chip-adjacent names gained 2-4%. The index was calm; the money was not.

Quadruple witching

Today was a quadruple-witching session, when stock options, index options and index futures all expire together. Bloomberg put the notional value of options expiring today at roughly $7 trillion, about a quarter of the market and the second-largest such expiration on record.

Days like this often bring heavier volume without much net direction, as traders unwind or roll expiring positions. Today’s sub-1% moves across the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq fit that pattern.

Yesterday's checkpoints, today's answer

Yesterday we flagged three things to watch: whether the Intel-SK Hynix Ohio talks turned into a concrete announcement, whether banks kept lagging the market, and whether CoreWeave stabilized after its convertible-note and share-sale news.

First, the Ohio talks are still exploratory. Benzinga reported SK Hynix maintains that no plan or agreement has been finalized.

Second, we can’t cleanly isolate today’s bank-versus-market gap, but the financial sector ETF (XLF) stayed weak this week, and Berkshire Hathaway’s latest 13F confirms it trimmed its Bank of America stake 6% as of June.

Third, CoreWeave priced an upsized $3.7 billion convertible-note offering today. Investing.com reported the notes mature in 2033, carry a 2.875% coupon, and convert near $97.85 a share. Unlike yesterday’s 4.16% drop, today’s pricing didn’t trigger another sharp slide – the immediate pressure looks contained, if not resolved.

The 10-year is back near 5%

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 1.03% to 5.00%, and the 30-year climbed 0.66% to 5.33% – both back near where they were before this week’s rate hike briefly pulled them down.

Futures pricing moved with them. Yahoo Finance reported the odds of an October rate hike jumped to 53.1% from 27.2% a week ago. The market is starting to treat this week’s hike as a first step rather than a one-off.

Oil fell more than 6% in a day

WTI crude dropped 6.32% to $95.47 a barrel. CNBC and Reuters (via Investing.com) reported Saudi Arabia expects to restore roughly half the capacity of its damaged East-West pipeline within days and full capacity within six weeks, easing fears of a supply disruption. In the meantime, Saudi crude is being rerouted through the Strait of Hormuz.

That oil fell this hard even as Saudi Arabia and Houthi forces kept trading strikes suggests markets are treating the conflict as regional rather than a direct threat to supply.

Coinbase jumped 11.66% in a day

Coinbase closed at $194.25, up 11.66% on the day. StocksToTrade reported the SEC issued a new ‘innovation exemption’ allowing on-chain trading of tokenized stocks, and Wall Street banks including Goldman Sachs raised price targets – Goldman lifted its target from $196 to $219 while keeping a Buy rating.

Even after today’s jump, Coinbase remains 51.7% below its 52-week high. That gap suggests the market isn’t yet treating today’s move as a structural re-rating.

Photo: Michael Förtsch / Unsplash

Sandisk rose on index-inclusion news

Sandisk closed up 10.99% at $1,791.82. 24/7 Wall St. reported Sandisk joins the S&P 100 on September 21, alongside Dell, Palo Alto Networks and Arista Networks – index funds buying ahead of the change likely drove much of today’s move.

The same report also pointed to a broader NAND demand recovery and firm memory pricing, suggesting the rally isn’t purely mechanical. Micron rose 3.92% on the same trend.

Chips led today's broader movers

Broadcom rose 2.97%, AMD gained 2.70%, and the semiconductor ETF (SOXX) added 2.69%. TradingKey attributed Broadcom’s move to commentary on its balance sheet strength, cost discipline, and expanding margins across chips and enterprise software.

The Intel-SK Hynix Ohio talks that started this week are still lifting memory- and foundry-linked names for a third straight session, even though Intel itself dipped 0.18% today.

Photo: DrHughManning / Wikimedia Commons (BY-SA 4.0)

Small caps and Bloom Energy went the other way

The Russell 2000 fell 0.5%. With Treasury yields rising again, rate-sensitive small caps were among the first to sell off even as the broad index stayed calm.

Bloom Energy fell 5.39% even as Mizuho raised its price target from $242 to $351. The stock remains more than 40% below its June high amid lingering caution over the pace of AI infrastructure spending.

Megacaps stayed quiet

Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet mostly moved less than 1% today. Meta fell 2.43%, the biggest megacap decliner, while Amazon rose 1.0%.

Given that today’s catalysts – index inclusion, a regulatory carve-out, an oil-supply story – were all single-name or single-commodity events, it makes sense the megacaps sat this one out.

What carries into Korea's next session

When Korea’s market opens Monday, the Ohio talks remain a live variable for SK Hynix shares. Nothing is signed yet, but three straight sessions of US chip strength tied to this story is a data point Korean memory investors will weigh.

The near-doubling of October hike odds could also pressure the won and foreign flows – rising Treasury yields have historically coincided with foreign investors trimming emerging-market equity exposure.

What to watch next session

First, whether the Intel-SK Hynix Ohio talks produce a concrete announcement or formal agreement. Second, whether rising October-hike odds push the 10-year further past 5%, and whether small caps keep leading the way down if it does. Third, whether Coinbase holds today’s gain or gives it back as a one-day reaction.

What we learned today

On forward P/E, Micron looks like the cheapest of today’s gainers: 6.5x, with 49.0% upside to its price target and still 19.1% below its 52-week high. Forty-five analysts cover the stock.

Beginner’s note: forward P/E divides today’s share price by the profit analysts expect over the next year. A lower number means the stock is cheap relative to its expected earnings; a higher one means the market has already priced in a lot of growth.

Intel trades at 52.7x forward earnings – more than eight times pricier than Micron – but has only 7.2% upside to target left. Coinbase, even after today’s jump, trades at 68.6x forward earnings, the richest of the three, and sits 51.7% below its 52-week high – a number that captures just how volatile the stock has been.

MarketBeat’s tally shows 16 upgrades, 5 downgrades and 25 new coverage initiations today. Coinbase stood out – Goldman Sachs raised its target from $196 to $219 while keeping a Buy rating, building on Compass Point’s Sell-to-Neutral upgrade from September 14.

The picture wasn’t uniformly bullish. Wells Fargo cut Netflix to Underweight from Neutral and slashed its target from $80 to $57. The same day, Mizuho raised Bloom Energy’s target from $242 to $351 even as the stock fell 5.39% – a reminder that a long-term analyst call and a single day’s price move don’t always point the same way.

Sources

• Yahoo Finance Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq slip as bond yields rise
• CNBC Oil prices today: Brent, WTI, Saudi Arabia, Houthi
• Investing.com Oil prices fall on hopes of limited supply disruptions
• Bloomberg US Options Expiry Reaches $7 Trillion in Second-Largest Triple Witching
• 24/7 Wall St. SanDisk Jumps 6% as Storage Bid Concentrates in One Name; Western Digital Rises 3%, Micron Ticks Up
• StocksToTrade Coinbase Stock Rallies As Wall Street Hikes Price Targets
• TradingKey Broadcom Inc Stock (AVGO) Opened Up by 4.16% on Sep 18: Key Drivers Unveiled
• Investing.com CoreWeave prices $3.7 billion convertible notes offering
• Benzinga SK Hynix, Intel Mull Memory Chip Making Deal in Ohio as US Pushes Semiconductor Production: Report