As the 10-Year Yield Hits 5%, Can KOSPI Hold 6,600?

Today's mood

KOSPI fell for a fourth straight session. After peaking at 7,051.64 on the 9th, the index closed at 6,627.26 today, down roughly 6% over four sessions.

Today’s own move wasn’t dramatic on its own — KOSPI fell 0.85% while KOSDAQ actually rose 0.70%. But the details split in two directions: on a night the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield touched 5% for the first time in nearly three years, Korea’s chip giants held their ground while robotics names surged.

Yesterday's checkpoint, checked today

Yesterday we said we wouldn’t treat KOSPI’s 3.26% drop as a short-lived shock, and we said we’d check the Fed’s FOMC outcome, whether Brent held above $108, and whether foreign net selling in chips eased.

The FOMC decision itself isn’t in yet — the two-day meeting is still underway and the result lands early Thursday Korea time, so we’re pushing that part of the verdict to the next session. The other two threads did play out today, though. Brent held the $108-110 range, and the 10-year Treasury yield actually climbed further, to 5.014%, its highest since October 2023. Yesterday’s worry carried through another day.

Yet Korea’s chip leaders barely moved. Samsung Electronics closed flat and SK Hynix actually rose 0.36%. Foreign selling in chips didn’t just ease — both stocks shook off yesterday’s losses entirely.

The 10-year yield hit 5% for the first time since 2023

Wall Street’s three main indexes all fell overnight. The Dow lost 0.29%, the S&P 500 0.48%, and the Nasdaq 0.56% (Newspim). AI industry leaders calling for a slower pace of development dragged down Nvidia, Broadcom and other chip names, and that pressure carried into Korea’s own session this morning.

Ahead of the two-day September FOMC meeting on the 15th-16th (U.S. time), the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.014%, its highest since October 2023 (Newspim, ZDNet). CME FedWatch is pricing a hike at around 90% odds, and Goldman Sachs expects a 25 basis-point increase. The stronger yield lifted the dollar too — the dollar index rose 0.3% to 99.41 (Newspim).

KOSPI is 6% off its September 9 peak

The pressure showed up from the opening bell. Foreigners sold a net 1.5735 trillion won and institutions sold 904.4 billion won, while individuals bought 832.4 billion won and cushioned the fall (Ajunews). KOSPI ended down 57.11 points (0.85%) at 6,627.26, its fourth straight losing session.

That’s 424 points, or 6.0%, below the 7,051.64 peak set on the 9th. The tug-of-war over the 7,000 line that ran for more than a month has tilted the other way this week.

Oil and the won

The Middle East kept weighing on markets too. After a drone strike knocked out the key pipeline linking Saudi Arabia’s eastern oil fields to the port of Yanbu on the 10th, Brent jumped about 9% last week and is now trading in the $108-110 range (Etoday, EBN) — supply worries as fighting between the U.S. and Iran intensifies.

The won also moved sharply. Priced off Hana Bank’s notice rate, the dollar-won rate closed up 0.84% at 1,359.80 won. Money Today called this the won’s steepest single-day move in three months, driven by dollar strength from the higher yield and a broader shift away from risk.

Today's headline stock: Wonik Holdings

KOSDAQ moved opposite KOSPI, rising 0.70% to close at 812.41. Robotics names led the gain, and Wonik Holdings led them all, surging 19.44% — the largest move among the stocks we follow today.

Wonik Holdings is grouped with robotics stocks because its subsidiary, Wonik Robotics, makes industrial robots alongside the group’s chip-equipment business. CBC News reported robotics names rallied together today, with expectations for expanded government investment in advanced strategic industries feeding the mood. A running narrative since last month — that U.S. curbs on Chinese robots entering the American market would benefit Korean parts makers over time — has kept lifting this theme (Global Economic, Hankyung, August reports).

Jusung Engineering missed the rally

Not every chip-equipment name went the same way. Jusung Engineering fell 4.2% today. Job Post attributed it to sentiment dented by overnight losses in U.S. chip stocks, compounded by profit-taking after a sharp recent run-up.

Rainbow Robotics (+3.71%) and Robotis (+1.73%) rode the robotics theme higher, while the chip-equipment corner absorbed the overnight shock from New York directly. Within the same KOSDAQ market, which theme a stock belonged to decided its day.

Hanwha Aerospace led KOSPI's decliners

The single biggest loser on KOSPI was Hanwha Aerospace, down 6.27% to close at 1,062,000 won — without any clear fresh negative headline. Asia News Agency reported profit-taking after the stock’s sharp recent run stood out in the absence of strong news, with some commentary pointing to a growing valuation burden.

Beginner’s note: PER (price-to-earnings ratio) is the share price divided by earnings per share — the lower it is, the cheaper the stock looks relative to its earnings.

Even after today’s drop, Hanwha Aerospace’s 12-month forward PER is 17.9x, still 56.7% below the average analyst target price. It sits 35.8% below its 52-week high. That profile reads more like a pullback after a big run than a reassessment of earnings.

Photo: Abdullah Al Hasan / Unsplash

HD Hyundai Heavy Industries ran into a strike

HD Hyundai Heavy Industries fell 3.94% to 451,500 won. Its union began a partial strike on the 11th, walking out four hours a day, and has warned it will extend that to seven hours a day on the 16th-18th (Businesspost). Stalled wage and labor talks are feeding worries about production disruption.

The bigger picture — hopes for U.S. Navy shipbuilding contracts and a broader global shipbuilding boom — hasn’t changed. But a concrete headwind like a strike landing on top of a sharp recent rally was enough to trigger profit-taking.

Financials fell together too

KB Financial (-2.7%), Shinhan Financial (-2.52%) and Samsung Life (-3.21%) all declined together. No stock-specific headwind stood out; it looks more like large-cap financials getting swept up in KOSPI-wide selling by foreigners and institutions (1.5735 trillion won and 904.4 billion won).

Their valuations haven’t gotten more demanding. KB Financial’s 12-month forward PER is 8.8x, 21.4% below its target price; Shinhan’s is 8.2x, 18.3% below target; Samsung Life’s is 10.6x, 39.2% below target. All three still trade well under where analysts see them.

Today's exception: LG Energy Solution

On a heavily red day, LG Energy Solution rose 3.42% to close at 363,000 won. Per Financial News, NH Investment & Securities kept its buy rating and 480,000-won target, arguing the market’s worry about weaker ESS order momentum versus peers is overdone.

A large share of this year’s 90 GWh ESS order target is weighted toward the second half, leaving room for a big contract, and NH projects third-quarter revenue of 9.1 trillion won and operating profit of 336.1 billion won — above the market average estimate of 8.9 trillion won and 290.6 billion won.

Photo: Ritupon Baishya / Unsplash

Foreigners and institutions sold again; individuals bought

On KOSPI today, foreigners sold a net 1.5735 trillion won and institutions sold 904.4 billion won, while individuals bought 832.4 billion won and softened the drop (Ajunews). KOSDAQ moved the other way — institutions bought a net 110.7 billion won and foreigners bought 24.1 billion won, while individuals sold 139.8 billion won.

Foreign selling on KOSPI has run for several sessions now, and whether that continues next session will be a key clue to where the index heads next.

What to watch next session

First is the U.S. September FOMC meeting, running two days on the 15th-16th (U.S. time). CME FedWatch prices roughly 90% odds of a hike and Goldman Sachs expects 25 basis points. The result lands early Thursday Korea time, but rates and the won could start reacting during Korea’s session on the 16th, the meeting’s second day.

Second is whether the robotics theme has legs. We’re watching whether the surges in Wonik Holdings and SPG were a one-day flow event or continue next session, as the pattern has repeated through the month.

Third is chip-equipment stocks. We’re checking whether names like Jusung Engineering absorb today’s selling and bounce, or whether New York’s AI-pace-slowdown worry keeps weighing on sentiment here too.

Last is the won and Brent crude. A further rise in yields could push the won weaker still, and whether Saudi Arabia’s pipeline is repaired will decide whether oil holds the $108 range.

Worth watching today

Today’s surge in names like Wonik Holdings and SPG isn’t a one-day story. Last month the U.S. FCC announced restrictions limiting new humanoid and quadruped-robot models, along with grid-connected power inverters, from entering the U.S. market, and the measure also bars U.S. government agencies from buying or operating unmanned ground vehicles made in certain countries (Global Economic, ZDNet, August).

The core products of Korea’s robotics makers — fixed industrial robots and collaborative robots — fall outside the new restrictions, limiting any near-term hit. But the view that Korean parts makers stand to benefit over time as Chinese advanced robots get shut out of the U.S. market has kept lifting the theme since August (Hankyung).

Today added a stock-specific catalyst on top of that backdrop. SPG drew buying after confirming roughly 1,000 units of sales to the Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials for its precision reducers — used in collaborative and quadruped robots — and a new robotic actuator, ‘SDD,’ that cuts heat buildup by more than 30% (Job Post). This month has seen the whole robotics theme move together each time a stock-specific order like this lands.

Sources

• Asia Economy KOSPI closes down 57.11 points (0.85%) at 6,627.26
• Edaily [Flash] KOSPI down 0.85% to 6,627; KOSDAQ up 0.7% to 812
• Ajunews Foreigners and institutions sell over 2 trillion won as KOSPI falls 0.85%
• Newspim Global Market Report, September 15
• Money Today Won-dollar rate rises 12.1 won to 1,359.4
• CBC News Wonik Holdings surges 18%+ to 26,000 won, leads robotics rebound
• Job Post SPG surges 13% toward 110,000 won on humanoid reducer demand
• Job Post Jusung Engineering falls 5%+ to 193,700 won on weak chip sentiment
• Businesspost HD Hyundai Heavy Industries down 4%+ intraday on stalled labor talks
• Financial News LG Energy Solution: large H2 orders expected, a buying opportunity
• Asia News Agency Hanwha Aerospace share price declining
• Global Economic US FCC bans foreign robot imports, testing Korea's robotics supply chain
• Hankyung Unexpected US ban on Chinese robots becomes a windfall for Korean robotics stocks