U.S. Market Close · 2026-09-24

What to Check Before Korea Opens: Yields and Moderna

Dow Jones Industrial Average

51,349.98

-0.31%

S&P 500

7,704.13

-0.02%

Nasdaq Composite

26,939.37

+0.01%

Russell 2000

2,835.57

-0.11%

VIX

15.67

+3.23%

US 10-Year Treasury Yield

5.16%

+0.94%

US 30-Year Treasury Yield

5.46%

+1.11%

Gold

4,306.3 USD

-0.28%

Today's mood

Wall Street’s headline indexes barely moved today, but underneath them Treasury yields and individual stocks were anything but quiet. The Dow slipped 0.31% and the Russell 2000 fell 0.11%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were essentially flat. The VIX, though, jumped 3.23% to 15.67 – an unusually large move for a day when the headline indexes barely budged, a sign of how much churn was happening beneath the surface.

Yesterday's checkpoints, today's answer

Yesterday’s piece flagged three things to watch: how SpaceX would react on its lockup-expiration day, whether the 10-year Treasury yield would keep climbing past 5.11%, and whether Alphabet’s drop was a one-day pullback or the start of a longer re-rating.

SpaceX fell just 0.22% to $148.03, actually 3.2% above where it stood eight sessions ago – a muted reaction given that 328.4 million newly unlocked shares hit the market. That’s a much smaller move than the 3.9% drop after the September 9 unlock.

The 10-year yield kept climbing, from 5.11% to 5.16% (more below). Alphabet, which dropped sharply yesterday, rose 1.34% today to $342.36 – at least for one day, this looks like a pullback rather than an ongoing re-rating.

For beginners: a lockup is the period after an IPO during which company insiders and employees are barred from selling their shares. When that period ends, a large block of stock can hit the market at once – which is why ‘lockup expiration’ days are often watched warily by investors.

Alphabet: yesterday's drop, today's rebound

Treasury yields hit a fresh 2007 high

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.94% to 5.16%, breaking above the 2007-era high it set just yesterday. The 30-year yield climbed 1.11% to 5.46%.

The trigger was, again, economic data. Reuters reported that September private-sector activity – both services and manufacturing – expanded at its fastest pace in more than five years, and the odds markets assign to an October Fed rate hike jumped from 55% to about 70% in a single day. Strong growth data ended up reading as bad news for a market worried about further tightening.

Oil rose right along with yields

WTI crude rose 2.44% to $94.41 a barrel. CNBC reported that Yemen’s Houthi rebels fired missiles at Saudi Arabia, which pushed oil higher intraday, before reports that the US and Iran were discussing a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz trimmed some of the gain. Gold fell 0.28% to $4,306.30 an ounce, since higher yields make an asset that pays no interest less attractive to hold.

Yet the major indexes absorbed most of the pressure

A day when Treasury yields hit a fresh 2007 high and oil jumped would usually rattle stocks hard. Today didn’t play out that way. The Dow closed down 0.31% at 51,349.98, the S&P 500 down 0.02% at 7,704.13, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.01% at 26,939.37 – far smaller moves than yesterday’s 1.03%, 0.76% and 0.69% declines.

What absorbed the pressure wasn’t the bond market calming down – it was individual stocks. Meta and Moderna rose 4.5% and 6.98% respectively, propping up the indexes, and the effect spilled over into semiconductors too.

Meta was today's real story

The large-cap stock that stood out most today was Meta, up 4.5% to $777.59 – 16.1% above where it stood eight sessions ago.

According to CNBC and Investing.com, Meta used its annual Connect 2026 developer conference to make its personal AI agent, Muse, the centerpiece of its AI strategy. Muse, launched just weeks ago, already has millions of users, and more than 1,500 outside developers have signed up to build connectors for it. Yahoo Finance reported that CEO Mark Zuckerberg said Meta plans to keep Muse free at first, then monetize it over time by taking a small fee on the transactions it handles – things like travel planning, finding cheaper insurance, or spotting refunds. Meta is also testing $20-a-month (Power) and $100-a-month (Maximum) subscription tiers. Unlike most of Meta’s existing business, this is a fee-based model rather than an advertising one.

Brokerage President Capital upgraded Meta from Neutral to Buy today, raising its price target from $660 to $897.

Meta's biggest daily move in eight sessions

Photo: torkildr / Flickr (BY-SA 2.0)

Intel and chipmakers rode the same wave

The AI enthusiasm Meta generated spilled over into semiconductors. Intel rose 3.91% to $127.39, 31.1% above where it stood eight sessions ago. Benzinga reported the rally reflected renewed attention to AI inference demand following Meta’s Connect 2026 announcements; Intel has now risen for three straight sessions, part of a chip-led rally that pushed the Nasdaq 100 to a three-month high.

Among the stocks we follow, AMD rose 2.38% to $629.26 – up 24.8% from eight sessions ago – and Micron added 0.81% to $1,080.53. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX), though, gained just 0.06%, a reminder that the rally wasn’t uniform even within chips.

Photo: Vishnu Mohanan / Unsplash

Why did Moderna jump almost 7% on its own?

The single biggest mover among the stocks we follow today was Moderna, up 6.98% to $194.82 – 35.5% above where it stood eight sessions ago, and up more than 500% for the year, according to Benzinga.

FX Leaders and Benzinga reported the move reflected two overlapping clinical catalysts. A personalized melanoma mRNA vaccine developed with Merck hit its goal in a 1,137-patient Phase 3 trial, and Moderna’s seasonal flu shot, mFLUSIVA, won FDA approval. Detailed Phase 3 results are due at the European Society for Medical Oncology’s Presidential Symposium on October 24.

Merck, Moderna’s partner on the vaccine, barely moved today, down just 0.07% – a sign the market read this as Moderna-specific news rather than a shared catalyst.

Moderna: another 7% on top of a 500%-plus year

Why did Moderna jump almost 7% on its own?

Photo: audrey_sel / Flickr (BY-SA 2.0)

Broadcom and SanDisk moved the other way

Not everything in chips went up. Broadcom fell 1.3% to $350.36. Benzinga reported the Financial Times said China’s state-owned assets regulator, SASAC, is reviewing how reliant state-backed data centers are on Broadcom’s networking switches.

SanDisk fell 3.47% to $1,753.62, though it’s still 14.6% above where it stood eight sessions ago. The pullback followed a run-up after Rosenblatt Securities initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $2,400 price target on September 22, and looks like profit-taking layered on top of pressure from rising yields and stretched valuations. Deere also fell, down 2.05% to $694.94, a pause in the rally that followed its recent earnings.

Micron is still the cheapest by valuation

Lining up today’s most-talked-about stocks on our valuation engine, Micron is still the cheapest. It trades at a forward P/E of 6.8x, with 40.3% of upside to its price target and trading 13.9% below its 52-week high.

Meta, today’s biggest large-cap mover, trades at a forward P/E of 22.3x with just 1.2% of upside left to its price target, and Moderna doesn’t even show up on this table – it’s expected to be unprofitable next year, so a forward P/E isn’t meaningful. A stock going up today and a stock being cheap are two different things.

Today's most-talked-about stocks, by valuation

263 analyst notes today, and more price-target cuts than hikes

MarketBeat tallied 263 analyst notes today across the market: 15 upgrades, 11 downgrades, 36 new coverage initiations, 47 price-target increases and 72 price-target cuts. Even on a day the indexes held up, analysts leaned more toward cutting targets than raising them.

Among the stocks we follow, Meta was the only name whose rating changed today (the President Capital upgrade covered above).

Walmart slipped quietly

Walmart was among today’s decliners, down 2.66% to $107.59 – 0.46% below where it stood eight sessions ago. There was no single clear catalyst; the narrative that using its $2.9 billion tariff refund to cut prices helps sales but pressures margins continued to weigh on the stock. Investing.com reported Walmart was among the early retail partners for Meta’s Muse agent, but that news gave the stock no lift today.

Photo: Declan Sun / Unsplash

This flows into tomorrow's Korean session

This carries straight into tomorrow’s Korean session. The AI-inference demand theme that lifted Intel and AMD could be read as favorable for memory names like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. But Treasury yields hitting a fresh 2007 high, with October rate-hike odds rising too, is a headwind for risk assets broadly, and Korean equities aren’t immune to it. The direction of the won-dollar rate will also hinge on where these yields go next.

What to watch next session

First, whether the 10-year Treasury yield climbs past 5.16% or settles back. Second, whether more analyst notes follow on Meta’s Muse monetization plan. Third, whether Moderna holds today’s gain ($194.82) or gives some of it back.

What we learned today

Why Muse is a fee, not an ad

At today’s Connect 2026, Meta positioned its personal AI agent, Muse, around a transaction-fee model rather than advertising. Investing.com reported Muse reached millions of users within weeks of launch, and more than 1,500 outside developers have signed up to build connectors for it.

Yahoo Finance reported that CEO Mark Zuckerberg said Muse will handle tasks like trip planning, finding cheaper insurance, or spotting refunds, and that Meta plans to eventually take a small cut of the transactions it completes. Meta is also testing $20-a-month (Power) and $100-a-month (Maximum) subscription tiers. Investing.com reported early retail partnerships with Walmart, Best Buy and Sephora.

The Ray-Ban Meta Gen 3 glasses start at $249, and the Meta VR Glasses, due next spring, are priced at $1,299. Meta also said it plans to offer more than 100 styles of AI glasses by the end of the year – a sign it wants Muse to live on glasses, not just phones.

Muse subscription	$20 (Power) / $100 (Maximum) per month
Ray-Ban Meta Gen 3	From $249
Meta VR Glasses	$1,299 (spring 2027)

Moderna's two clinical catalysts, on two different clocks

The two stories behind today’s Moderna move sit on different timelines. The personalized melanoma mRNA vaccine developed with Merck, intismeran autogene, hit its primary goal in a 1,137-patient Phase 3 trial, but Benzinga reported the detailed data won’t be presented until the European Society for Medical Oncology’s Presidential Symposium on October 24. The seasonal flu shot, mFLUSIVA, has already cleared the FDA, so there’s no timing uncertainty there.

Benzinga reported the stock is up more than 500% this year on the combination. After a run like that, if the October 24 data disappoints, the pullback could be just as sharp. Merck’s own shares barely moved today, which suggests the market is treating this as Moderna-specific news rather than a shared catalyst.

Year-to-date gain	500%+ (per Benzinga)
Phase 3 trial size	1,137 patients
Detailed data date	October 24 (ESMO)

How Buffett and Coatue moved as of June 30

13F filings covering the quarter through June 30 show Berkshire Hathaway added 24,541,369 Alphabet Class A shares (+45%) and 23,603,218 Class C shares (+658%) during the quarter, while cutting its Bank of America stake by 30,230,150 shares (-6%).

Coatue Management increased its Micron stake by 2,976,338 shares (+1,794%) and opened a new SpaceX position of 18,561,780 shares. Both stocks we covered today, in other words, were already being accumulated by large institutions last quarter.

A 13F filing is published 45 days after the quarter it covers, though, so this is a snapshot of last quarter’s positioning, not what Buffett or Coatue hold today – and markets have moved a great deal since then.

Berkshire · Alphabet Class A	+24,541,369 sh (+45%)
Berkshire · Alphabet Class C	+23,603,218 sh (+658%)
Coatue · Micron	+2,976,338 sh (+1,794%)
Coatue · SpaceX	18,561,780 sh (new)

Fermata’s Take

We don’t read today’s resilient indexes as a sign that the rate pressure has gone away. The 10-year yield breaking a fresh 2007-era high, with October hike odds jumping from 55% to 70% in a day, tells us the bond market hasn’t relaxed – today’s calm indexes look more like individual stories (Meta, Moderna) papering over that pressure than the pressure itself easing.

So we’re not chasing Moderna’s move today – it’s a 7% gain on top of a stock that’s already up more than 500% this year, and the full Phase 3 data won’t arrive until October 24. Until then, the outcome could go either way. Meta’s Muse monetization plan, on the other hand, we treat as a story to track over several quarters, not a one-day event – we’ll watch whether actual transaction-fee revenue shows up in coming earnings.

Next session, we’ll check whether the 10-year yield keeps climbing past 5.16%, whether more analyst notes follow on Meta, and whether Moderna holds today’s gain.

Check · 2026-09-25 — We'll check whether the 10-year Treasury yield climbs past 5.16%, whether more analyst notes follow on Meta's Muse monetization plan, and whether Moderna holds today's gain ($194.82).